We have completed our second survey of
the Travel Retail Catalyst Study (TRaCS) in 2014 and can now report on the
major things that are changing. In this study we are tracking changes in
the basic drivers of consumer behavior such as what motivates consumers to shop
when they travel and what their preferences are about where to shop and what to
buy. We are also tracking what they spend their money on and where they
spend it and what their opinions are of the various places they might shop when
they travel. We are tracking these changes for 37 different
nationalities. We expect these characteristics to change but we don’t
really expect them to change rapidly. So we are surprised at what we are
seeing. Here are the things that are changing the fastest:
- Average spending is down 10%
- The size of the total market is growing because pax increases more than offset spending declines
- With the exception of chocolate, cosmetics and watches, all product categories are showing declines in penetration
- Interest in buying Louis Vuitton is declining, but interest in some other brands is growing, most notably Hermes
- Travellers are becoming more attuned to the destinations they are visiting when thinking about what to buy and are less likely just to be buying "famous brands."
- Travellers now prefer to shop grocery stores more so than airport duty free shops
- Airport duty free shops are improving in perceived convenience, and getting worse in price perceptions
- There is improving popularity for whisky brands, particularly Chivas Regal, and declining popularity of Vodka
- There is declining interest in buying Clinique and Dior in duty free beauty shops
- While Lindt maintains its popularity among the most popular brands of confectionery, Nestle, M&Ms and Cadbury are all suffering from weakening interest
For details, on each one please
scroll down further. Of course, each of these global trends mask what is
happening at regional and national levels and with particular subgroups of
travellers. For more info on these, please contact me directly
Average spending is down 10%
In just the past 2 years average
spending by travelling consumers on merchandise either to use on the trip or to
bring home has declined by about 10% from 499 euro to 445 euro this year.
Average spending by nearly all nationalities is down in 2014 compared to 2012,
but is down significantly for Australians, Americans and Swiss. Chinese
continue to spend more than four times the worldwide average. However,
although not statistically significant, Chinese seem to be reducing their spending
on merchandise when they travel. All of the indicators from China suggest
that spending will decline further in the coming years - because of new laws
governing "forced shopping tours," the effects of the austerity drive
on ostentatious consumption and gift giving and the overall slowing of growth
in the Chinese economy.
Although average spending is down
from 2012 to 2014, the size of the global travel retail market is growing, but
at a slower pace than the growth in traveler numbers. We estimate that
worldwide international travellers spent about 334 billion euros for the year prior
to May of 2014. This is up just slightly over the same period in 2012.
Brand Boutiques and Department Stores capture about 1/5 of this total each
whereas airport duty free shops capture only about 12%.
With the exception of chocolate,
cosmetics and watches, all product categories are showing declines in
penetration
While virtually all travelling
consumers buy something when they travel, the % buying in specific categories
is declining for all categories except chocolate, cosmetics and watches.
For these three categories, the % of travelling consumers buying has stayed the
same. There are no product categories showing increases in
penetration. The biggest declines in penetration are for books/magazines,
souvenir apparel, cigarettes and men’s fashion.
Interest in buying Louis Vuitton is
declining, but interest in some other brands is growing, most notably Hermes
Perhaps portending the future,
interest in buying Louis Vuitton has declined dramatically from 13% of all
international travelers in 2012 to 10% in 2014, taking LV from the third most
popular brand worldwide with travelling consumers to the 8th.
LV is not alone, with interest in Chanel, Calvin Klein, Christian Dior, Prada,
Dolce & Gabbana and Versace, among the 20 most popular brands, also
declining as is interest in Abercrombie & Fitch. At the same time
interest in buying Bulgari, Hermes, Hugo Boss, Tommy Hilfiger, YSL and Dunhill,
among the 20 most popular brands, is growing.
Travellers are becoming more attuned to the
destinations they are visiting when thinking about what to buy and are less
likely just to be buying "famous brands."
Travelling consumers are tailoring
their purchases more to the destinations that they are visiting and moving away
from simply buying the famous brands they desire, regardless of where they are
travelling. Based on this shift one would expect to find that sales of
famous French fashion brands will do better in France than they will in London
and Prada and Gucci will do better in Milan and Venice than they will in
Sydney, for instance.
Travellers now prefer to shop grocery stores
more so than airport duty free shops
Department stores are now the most
popular places for travelling consumers to buy when they travel. While
department stores have improved in popularity, brand boutiques are remaining
static in terms of preference, and the popularity of street markets appears to
be declining. Also, with substantial growth in the popularity of grocery
stores, and no change in the popularity of airport duty free stores, grocery
stores are now more popular locations for travelling consumers to buy than are
duty free shops. With an increasing sensitivity to what the destination
may be well known for, it is not surprising that department stores and grocery
stores, both of which will tend to cater to local tastes, are more popular with
travelers than airport duty free shops.
Airport duty free shops are improving in perceived
convenience, and getting worse in price perceptions
The factors driving purchases at
airport duty free shops are product authenticity, speed and convenience, but no
longer price. While the perceptions of speed have improved modestly,
perceptions of airport duty free having the best prices have declined
dramatically. This decline in the belief that airport duty free stores
have the best prices may explain why travellers now prefer to shop everywhere
else other than duty free shops when they travel.
There is improving popularity for
whisky brands, particularly Chivas Regal, and declining popularity of Vodka
Popular whisky brands such as Chivas
Regal, Johnnie Walker and Glenfiddich are either improving or holding their
popularity among travelling consumers, whereas vodka brands Absolut and
Smirnoff are showing sharp declines. The single most popular product,
Bailey’s Irish Cream is also showing in popularity that could signal declines
in sales in the next few years.
There is declining interest in buying
Clinique and Dior in duty free beauty shops
When travelers who bought beauty
products on their last trip are asked to indicate what brands of beauty
products they will buy on future trips, there are some important changes among
the most popular brands. While Chanel
remains essentially unchanged in popularity, Clinique and Dior show a decline
in popularity, as do Calvin Klein and L’Oreal.
While Lindt maintains its popularity
among the most popular brands of confectionery, Nestle, M&Ms and Cadbury
are all suffering from weakening interest
Travellers who buy confectionery
when they travel are showing a declining interest in buying some of the world’s
biggest brands when they travel, most notably Cadbury, M&Ms and
Nestle. Contrasted with this, Lindt is holding its own in popularity.
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